New analysis by Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s (BofAML’s) Global Commodity Research team sees no alternative but for China to cut back production (temporary) and capacity (permanent) to rebalance the global market.
While aluminium has been the best performing base metals since the start of the year, gaining about 8% year-to-date on the back of a rebalancing global market, which has been mirrored in stable global reported and unreported inventories, trends in global inventories have masked a remarkable divergence of regional fundamentals: most notably, surpluses and rising inventories in China have offset deficits and falling stocks in the rest of the world, excluding China.
