China’s latest Five-Year Plan will be detrimental coal imports, according to BMI Research’s Global Commodities Strategist, John Davies, with policies to promote cleaner electricity generation hitting the coal-fired power sector.

The plan includes policies to increase the use of cleaner fuels and lower carbon emissions – including the implementation of a nationwide cap-and-trade scheme by 2017. This will see declines in coal-fired power in 2016 and 2017 with only slight annual increases thereafter.

“Restrictions on imported coal will […] remain, such as unofficial import quotas on state-owned power plants, coal import tariffs, decreased coal export tariffs and stringent quality checks on imported coal,” Davies said in a recent report. This will see China’s thermal coal imports capped at a similar level to the 108 million t registered in 2015.

On the metallurgical side, consolidation in the steel industry will result in overall demand falling. BMI Research expects further falls in metallurgical coal imports on the back of a 21.5% fall in the 112 months to February 2016.

Edited by Jonathan Rowland.