Saudi Arabia’s new oil minister has signalled an end to the worst of the oil glut and indicated the Opec kingpin is preparing to reassert a degree of control over the market after two years of letting prices fall.
During a visit to the US, Khalid al Falih said that the kingdom would be “expected” to start balancing supply and demand as the market recovers, with the world’s largest oil exporter once again assuming its role as the global swing producer.
“We are out of it. The oversupply has disappeared,” he said in . “We just have to carry the overhang of inventory for a while until the system works it out.”
Saudi Arabia upended energy markets in late 2014 when its then oil minister, Ali al Naimi, decided to keep the taps open in the face of growing unconventional supplies.
Fearing US shale, Canadian tar sands and ultra-deep water crude was taking too much of the market, the Opec leader instead let prices fall to squeeze out more expensive producers, leading many to say the cartel had lost relevance as prices tumbled.
But Mr Falih has moved to since his appointment as energy and industry minister in May, using an Opec meeting earlier this month to rally the cartel and calm fears that Saudi Arabia might flood the market with oil.
he said the group should “encourage the rebalancing”. It is a message he has emphasised while visiting the US as part of a group led by Mohammed bin Salman, the powerful deputy crown prince of the kingdom.
Saudi Aramco, the state oil company that pumps one in every eight barrels of oil globally, also carried the comments from Mr Falih on Wednesday, saying that the Kingdom’s oil policy was “rooted in responsibility” after he met with officials from the US Department of Energy.
“Due to its strategic importance, will be expected to balance supply and demand once market conditions recover. Saudi Arabia is seeking to maintain that balance while also giving heed to moderate prices for producers and consumers,” he was quoted as saying on the .
Mr Falih, a former chief executive of Saudi Aramco and a trusted aide to the Saudi royal family, is seen as a key player in Prince Mohammed’s ambitious project — known as Vision 2030 — to transform the Saudi economy and reduce its reliance on oil.
The collapse in prices from more than $110 a barrel in mid-2014 to below $30 in January has strained the budgets of producer countries both inside and outside Opec, including Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh has tapped international debt markets and reduced subsidies and aims to privatise part of Aramco to help fund a larger sovereign wealth fund.
US shale output has declined since peaking just over a year ago, but the recovery in prices to around $50 a barrel has led to a pick-up in drilling by companies.
Ian Taylor, the head of Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, said on Wednesday that the decline in US production was , with prices expected to reach “the mid-$50s” or a little higher by the end of the year.
Speaking with the Houston Chronicle, Mr Falih also cautioned producers hoping for a return to much higher prices soon, saying Opec would not seek a specific price level.
“The tools that Opec has used in the past — targeting specific prices — have not always worked in the long term,” Mr Falih said. “They create market dislocations that ultimately hurt producers and consumers.”
Saudi Arabia raised oil production from 9.6m barrels a day in late 2014 to an all-time high near 10.6m b/d last June. But since then it has maintained production at a steady 10.2m b/d, according to data provided to JODI.
Mr Falih has indicated Saudi does not intend to flood the market, dampening fears it could raise production to 11m b/d or higher as regional rival Iran tries to regain market share.
Iran’s output has more than doubled exports to around 2.3m b/d since sanctions related to its nuclear programme were largely lifted in January.
“Recent events in Vienna also confirmed our view that the kingdom is not about to destabilise the market and increase production to flood the market regardless of the demand for Saudi crude,” said analysts at Energy Aspects in a report.