Hedge funds turned more positive on last week, adding to their bullish positions for the first time in over a month after Opec members moved to talk up the market.
Funds trading Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures and options raised their net long positions — the difference between bullish and bearish bets — by more than 10 per cent in both contracts, as Opec reignited discussions over a possible production freeze.
The move helped propel Brent crude oil to its biggest weekly gain since April, rising 6 per cent to almost $47 a barrel, with funds both closing out bets against the price and adding new positions that will benefit should the market rise.
An informal meeting of Opec member countries is scheduled to take place on the sidelines of an energy conference in Algeria next month. At the same time, Venezuela is trying to organise a meeting including big producers outside the cartel to discuss potential measures to prop up prices.
The country’s oil minister Eulogio del Pino is set to begin a tour of Opec and non-Opec countries to see if there is a plan or a strategy they would all be prepared to back.
The cash-strapped country has been at the forefront of seeking a deal to curb global supplies just as other wealthier producer countries look to maintain market share.
“Tomorrow he leaves on an Opec and non-Opec tour,” President Nicolás Maduro said on Friday in a televised broadcast. “I call on all energy players in the world, Opec, non-Opec . . . so that we can really get to work on this.”
Saudi Arabia has a renewed global effort to stabilise glutted markets, but has also raised production to a record level of almost 10.7m barrels a day.
An earlier deal to freeze output failed in April because of Saudi opposition. It refused to back an agreement without the involvement of Iran, which has been ramping up production since the lifting of sanctions linked to its nuclear programme.
With Iran near its short-term production capacity some analysts think an agreement is possible. Others are less sure and say a deal would make little or no difference to the market fundamentals because so many producers are pumping close to or at record levels.
Energy Aspects, a London-based consultancy, warned on Monday there was a risk Saudi Arabia could raise production further.
“In the absence of a successful meeting, there is a non-trivial risk Saudi Arabia throws in the towel, and would then keep its output elevated at 10.7m b/d or higher,” Energy Aspects said.
Russia, the world’s largest non-Opec producer, said it was co-operating with Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s de facto leader, to “achieve market stability”, according to its energy minister Alexander Novak on Monday.
Speaking to Saudi newspaper Asharq al-Awsat, Mr Novak said they were “determined to continue dialogue to achieve market stability”, according to Reuters.
On Monday Brent crude hit a four-week high of $47.67 a barrel — a rise of 68 cents — before falling back.
Oil has rebounded after falling into bear market territory earlier this month, when it dropped 20 per cent from its yearly highs on the back of fresh supply glut fears concentrated on the US gasoline market.