Saudi Arabia’s oil production rose close to record levels in June, as Opec forecast stronger demand for the group’s crude next year.

The kingdom, Opec’s largest oil producer and the world’s biggest exporter, increased output to almost 10.6m barrels a day last month, after keeping output largely steady since August.

Saudi Arabia normally pumps more crude to meet a seasonal surge in domestic demand during the summer months. However, its output is under particular scrutiny after promising Opec peers last month not to flood the market.

Traders and Opec rivals are watching Saudi production closely after oil minister sought to reassure the market at the Vienna Opec meeting the kingdom would not unleash its supplies and depress prices.

The Opec data, released on Tuesday, contains for the first time forecasts for the whole of next year. The numbers suggest the Saudi-led oil strategy shows signs of working.

In late 2014 Opec made a decision to sustain its output in the face of lower prices, putting pressure on rival producers of expensively produced oil. This helped extend the drop in crude prices.

The market is beginning to rebalance thanks to a drop in output from higher cost producers, which Opec claims will lift demand for the group’s crude in 2017. Saudi production rose to similar levels this time last year — a record for the kingdom.

Production in June jumped by 280,000 b/d from the prior month, according to data reported by the Saudi government to the Opec producers group.

Higher air-conditioning demand has traditionally boosted the volume of crude burnt directly in the kingdom’s power plants. Industry observers say domestic refining has also picked up.

The self-reported numbers are higher than estimates provided to Opec by secondary sources, such as oil analysts and consultants, who said produced 10.3m b/d in June.

Figures given to JODI, the oil database, by the kingdom show production hovered around 10.2m b/d for the last nine months. November and December saw a drop below this level.

Mr Falih, who is also chairman of the state’s energy giant Saudi Aramco, said after his appointment to minister in May the kingdom would maintain its oil policy of not cutting its production to benefit others.

“We have seen a decrease in supply by roughly one million barrels of crude oil per day,” Mr Falih told German business daily Handelsblatt this week, referring to output in the US and Canada.

“At the same time, demand has recovered, meaning that supply and demand are now more balanced again. But there are still excess stocks on the market,” he said.

Brent crude, which fell from $115 a barrel in June 2014 to below $30 earlier this year, has since . On Tuesday the international benchmark rose $1.46 a barrel to $47.70.

The sharp rise in Opec’s total June production — of more than 260,000 b/d to 32.9m b/d — according to secondary sources, affirms a continuation of the group’s strategy.

Alongside Saudi Arabia, Iran, Libya and Nigeria accounted for much of the increase, according to these secondary estimates. Venezuela saw a decline in production.

Demand for crude from the 14 members of Opec, which now also includes new member Gabon, stands at 31.9m b/d on average for 2016. This is still below today’s production levels.

Should global demand increase at 2016’s pace next year — at 1.2m — to total 95.3m b/d, while production outside the group continues to fall, demand for the group’s crude is forecast to increase to almost 33m b/d.

“Market conditions will help remove overall excess oil stocks in 2017,” Opec said in its monthly report.