In a significant development this week, lithium prices have surged, driven by a combination of record electric vehicle (EV) sales and strategic supply chain adjustments. The lithium spot price hit 143,750 CNY/T on February 13, 2026, marking a 0.88% increase from the previous day, although it remains 11.81% lower compared to the previous month, according to Trading Economics. This price movement underscores the ongoing volatility in the lithium market as demand outpaces supply adjustments.
Market Action and Dynamics
Following a recent peak of CNY 180,000 per tonne in January, lithium carbonate futures have settled at CNY 160,000 per tonne, reflecting market adjustments as traders balance short-term oversupply concerns with robust demand forecasts. According to S&P Global, the narrowing surplus in lithium chemicals, down to 109,000 mt LCE from 141,000 mt in 2025, adds pressure on prices as consumption is projected to rise by 13.5% this year.
Analysis: What’s Driving the Surge
The primary catalyst for the recent price surge is the unprecedented growth in global EV sales. The EV market saw more than 30 million units sold in 2025, a 20% increase year-over-year, as reported by Mining.com. This surge in sales has amplified the demand for lithium, a critical component in battery production. Furthermore, the increase in battery capacity deployment, which topped 1 TWh for the first time in 2025, is a testament to the growing reliance on lithium in energy storage solutions.
Context: Supply Chain Adjustments
Amidst rising demand, strategic moves in the supply chain are also influencing lithium’s price trajectory. The U.S.’s recent announcement of Project Vault, a $12 billion initiative to stockpile critical minerals including cobalt, signals a broader effort to secure supply chains against geopolitical risks. Although this project focuses primarily on cobalt, it highlights a global trend towards securing battery metal supplies, which could indirectly impact lithium markets as countries seek to mitigate supply disruptions.
Outlook: What to Watch Next
Looking ahead, market participants should monitor several key factors. The ongoing adjustments in global supply chains, particularly in response to geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes, could further influence lithium prices. Additionally, any technological breakthroughs or new battery factory announcements could shift demand dynamics. Analysts will also be watching the potential deficit forecasts, with firms like Morgan Stanley predicting an 80,000 mt LCE deficit in 2026, which could further drive prices upward.
Conclusion
The lithium market continues to be shaped by the interplay of robust demand from the EV sector and strategic supply chain realignments. While the current surge in prices reflects immediate market conditions, investors and industry stakeholders should remain vigilant to ongoing changes in global supply dynamics and technological advancements. As always, past performance does not guarantee future results, and analysis should be considered as part of a broader investment strategy.
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