Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) Securities projects a copper price rise above $10,000 per tonne by 2025, while predicting iron ore prices will fall below $80 per tonne, driven by a supply surplus and declining demand from China’s steel sector.

Copper outlook

Copper remains strong due to high demand, constrained supply, and increased investment in energy transition projects.

Bank of America analysts maintain a positive outlook, expecting prices to stay elevated with potential Fed rate cuts.

“Manufacturing activity should stabilize as the Fed cuts rates, so we maintain our constructive copper view into 2025,” the analysts said.

Copper prices have risen 6% year-to-date in 2024, driven by tight mine supply and challenges in refining.

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Additionally, spending on energy infrastructure—especially grid expansion tied to decarbonization—has boosted demand. In China, grid investments have offset weaker demand from the housing sector, further supporting copper.

Iron ore outlook

In contrast, iron ore faces challenges from declining demand, especially in China’s property sector, where iron ore consumption dropped from 50% in 2010 to 20% in 2024 due to a government crackdown on speculative investments and a slowdown in housing construction.

Steel production has also declined, and although sectors like machinery have helped, it’s not enough to counter the construction downturn, according to BofA.

Negative steel mill margins in China have led to production cuts, while major exporters Australia and Brazil continue to increase output, worsening the supply glut.

“With a surplus of 190mt, or 7.5% of total supply expected for next year, this suggests that prices may fall below $80/t, to incentivize either the large miners to stop adding to supply or take some of the higher cost operations especially in China out of the market,” the analysts said. 

Read More: Goldman Sachs cuts Q4 iron ore price forecast by $15/t on supply glut

Source: MINING.COM – Read More