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Downgrading Teck Resources after massive stock rally

Teck Resources Ltd.’s share price is on an incredible run. It is up more than 80 per cent since the company reported earnings on Feb. 11, and more than 150 per cent since bottoming out in mid-January. Copper prices are up only modestly in that period.

National Bank analyst Shane Nagle thinks enough is enough. He downgraded the stock to underperform from sector perform, though he did increase his target price to $8 a share (from $6.25) to allow for some multiple expansion.

Nagle said the stock is now at a substantial premium to its trading range over the past three years, and appears to be pricing in “at least” a 10-per-cent increase in base metal prices.

That said, he does see reason to be optimistic about Teck beyond improving market sentiment. He noted the Vancouver-based miner’s cost-cutting initiatives have paid off, and, unlike some of its rivals, it can handle its debt obligations.

Nagle also said that Teck is well-positioned to raise more capital from asset sales. That would alleviate some investor concerns about the company’s high debt and its $2.9-billion commitment to the Fort Hills oil sands project.

“Operating cost reductions continue to impress and several levers are available to the company to generate capital, including non-core asset sales” he said in a note.