La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025,” the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly outlook issued on September 12.

La Nina episodes in the winter months feature a wave-like jet stream flow across the United States and Canada, which causes colder and stormier than average conditions across the North, and warmer and less stormier conditions across the south.

Correlation

Nat Gas Price Chart

Early data shows that the Polar Vortex is likely to be weaker than normal in the Winter of 2024/2025. A weaker Polar Vortex usually means a weaker jet stream, which increases the chance of a more dynamic (colder/snowy) Winter pattern over the United States, Canada, and/or Europe.

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